The hottest northern environmental protection comp

2022-08-22
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Northern environmental protection comprehensive high pressure! Beijing Tianjin Hebei inventory fell by 4.2%

stimulated by the news of environmental protection and production restriction in August, steel prices surged all the way. Although the rise ended with a correction at the end of the month, market participants still looked forward to the golden autumn market. Now the peak season in September has come, and then there is rise or fall. It doesn't matter. First, listen to what traders say:

(after investigation, the core views of traders in the leading market in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are as follows)

view 1: under the high pressure of environmental protection policies, the supply side is still tight in the later stage.

in previous years, the basic side was dominant, but now the important factor promoting the continuous rise of steel prices is environmental protection and production restriction, and the market is constantly stimulated, This benefit has been digested in advance. At present, with the end of the production restriction in August, the market supply has eased. However, from the perspective of policy, environmental protection will not stop. With the advent of the strict production restriction season in autumn and winter, it will only continue to increase the pressure. In this case, there are still expectations for the supply side

view 2: the actual demand is the key, and the shipment is mainly under the condition of acceptable profits.

although the North has entered autumn, the high temperature weather is still in the north, and the terminal operation needs to be released. The demand recovery is relatively slow, and it has not been fully opened. At present, the daily shipment volume of mechanical parts and aviation equipment parts is not very optimistic, and it is difficult to recover funds. At present, the operation is relatively cautious, and more consideration is given to batch shipment, Do not advocate reluctant sale

view 3: the current price is high and the risk is high, so it is prudent to increase it.

first of all, we need to do marketing planning to make a positioning and market dissemination for the experimental machine.

the price hit new highs repeatedly in August. In the early stage, under the dual stimulation of snails and raw materials, the transaction performance was acceptable. However, the downstream is not very receptive to this high price, and at present, the ordering cost of traders is high, so we believe that the market already has high risks, Steel mills should appropriately slow down the price increase, lock in certain profits and adjust prices cautiously when the early increase is too high

from the above, it can be seen that supply, demand and environmental protection policies have become the key words that touch all traders, and environmental protection has become the top priority. Environmental protection and production restriction continue to affect the supply side. From the following inventory and production data:

inventory:

national inventory, despite the low consumption season, inventory has not increased significantly under the impact of environmental protection and production restriction. Take the inventory of Beijing Tianjin Hebei market as an example. According to statistics, as shown in Figure 2 below, the total inventory of the leading cities in Beijing Tianjin Hebei this week (Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Chengde, Xuanhua) was 643800 tons, a decrease of 28500 tons from last week, a decrease of 4.2%, 25100 tons lower than the same period last year. Among them, the inventory in Beijing and Tianjin decreased significantly. The inventory of construction steel in Beijing decreased by 23000 tons compared with last week, and the inventory of construction steel in Tianjin decreased by 7000 tons compared with last week. On the whole, the arrival resources of leading large factories are relatively small

daily output of crude steel:

according to the data released by China Steel Association, key steel enterprises produced 18.952 million tons of crude steel, 17.1707 million tons of pig iron and 17.8429 million tons of steel in mid August. The daily output and the increase and decrease over the previous ten days are: 1.8952 million tons of crude steel, a decrease of 41800 tons, a decrease of 2.16%; Pig iron was 1717100 tons, with a reduction of 33600 tons or 1.92%; 1.7843 million tons of steel, an increase of 19200 tons, an increase of 1.09%. From the overall trend, under the influence of environmental protection and production restriction and other factors, the output showed a downward trend

in addition, the enhanced version of Tangshan environmental protection is coming today. The document emphasizes that the proportion of steel enterprises to limit production in September is 4. The heat resistance is not lower than that in August; Before September 20, the municipal development and Reform Commission and the Municipal Bureau of industry and information technology were responsible for formulating the peak staggering production plan for steel and other key industries in autumn and winter, the Municipal Transportation Bureau was responsible for formulating the peak staggering transportation plan in autumn and winter, and all counties (cities) and districts formulated local peak staggering production and transportation plans according to the requirements of the municipal plan, which will be implemented from October 1

at the same time, according to the Taiyuan municipal government station, the "work plan for Taiyuan to win the blue sky defense war" was officially released a few days ago. By October 15, we will complete the comprehensive rectification of the unorganized emissions in the material storage yard and the loading and unloading, transportation and production process of industrial enterprises; By the end of September, TISCO will complete the pilot transformation of coking plant with ultra-low emission; The second pollution source survey is closely combined, and a detailed management list is established by the end of October to find out the use and emission of industrial furnaces; Industrial furnaces that are not included in the screening list are all included in the peak staggering production plan in autumn and winter, and production stops are implemented. "A small limit in three days and a big limit in five days" has formed a strong support for steel prices under the continuous overweight and high pressure

in general, the steel peaked and fell, and the follow-up of real transactions was insufficient. Although there was some bad in the short term, the long-term trend was optimistic. The current round of decline adjustment has been more than two weeks. From the perspective of time for space, there is still an opportunity to counter attack the rise in the expansion period in mid and late September

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